The Anchor

What it is

The first number put on the table drags every later number toward it. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed this in the 1970s: people’s estimates were pulled toward a number they’d just seen, even a random one from a spun wheel. The same pull shows up in pricing, in haggling, even in experts. That first number is the anchor. Everything gets measured from it.

Why it works

We rarely know what anything is worth. So we grab the nearest number and adjust. We never adjust far enough. Start at 500 and “a good deal” feels like 400. Start at 200 and “a good deal” feels like 150. Same item. Different anchor. Different result.

Spot it

• The first number arrives fast, before you’ve had time to think.
• It comes with a story: “These normally sell for...”
• A “was” price, a “worth” price or a “retail value” that nobody ever actually paid.
• You find yourself negotiating around their number instead of starting from your own.

Counter it

1. Write your number down before you go in. On your phone, before you see the item. Your number, from your research. That’s your anchor.
2. Don’t respond to an extreme anchor. Reject it. Countering an absurd number legitimizes it. Instead say, “That’s way off what I’ve seen,” and name your own number with a reason.
3. Re-anchor out loud. “The last three of these sold for around 200.” Bring a new reference point into the room.
4. Take a beat. “Let me check.” Walking away for five minutes lets the anchor fade.
5. Imagine they’d said the opposite. If they’d said $200/€200 instead of $600/€600, what would you offer? Use that.